Low-Cost Cubs Reliever Targets for 2024
The Cubs bullpen faltered down the stretch. Jed Hoyer hasn’t indicated a propensity to spend big on relievers, either in free agency or in trades. Luckily for the Cubs front office, there are always multitudes of relievers available in the offseason. I’ve compiled a list of relievers that the Cubs could add to their bullpen next year in hopes of fortifying a weakness while not breaking the bank or depleting the farm system.
Trade Candidates
142.2 IP 31.2 K% 8.5 BB% 4.04 ERA 3.96 FIP
Pivetta started in a little under half his games for the Red Sox this year. He wasn’t bad as a starter, as a reliever he was able to ratchet up his strikeout rate to 35.3%, leading to a 3.07 ERA and 3.27 FIP in 55.2 relief innings. Why would the Red Sox move on from a swingman who can be an excellent reliever? There’s no guarantee that they would, but MLB Trade Rumors projects Pivetta to make $6.9M in his final year of arbitration next year. The Red Sox will go into the offseason with a new front office and could choose to allocate their resources elsewhere. The biggest issue with trading for Pivetta is that he may not be happy being mostly in the bullpen in his final year before free agency.
89.2 IP 17.8 K% 3.7 BB% 4.52 ERA 4.38 FIP
Yarbrough is a swingman, often working as a long reliever behind an opener. He had an unsustainably low strikeout rate with the Royals, but after being traded to the Dodgers (and before a blow up start in Coors to end the season) he struck out 25.5% of the batters he faced in 34.2 innings while walking only 2.8%. The Dodgers increased Yarbrough’s cutter and sinker usage and decreased his changeup usage, which could explain his success. He was blown up in his last start, however, and then left off the NLDS roster, so there are some red flags. As a lefty swingman, Yarbrough is probably redundant with Drew Smyly on the Cubs roster, but he could be a cheaper option to get some quality bulk innings.
40.2 IP 29.1 K% 11.5 BB% 2.66 ERA 3.97 FIP
Kahnle had dominant stretches as a reliever for the White Sox and Yankees before undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2020. He pitched well, albeit briefly, for the Dodgers in 2022 and the Yankees brought him back on a two-year deal. Kahnle seems to be a stabilizing veteran presence in the bullpen, something the Cubs missed as Brad Boxberger and Michael Fulmer were at times injured or ineffective. I assume the Yankees will want to retain Kahnle, who’s owed $5.7M next year, but his season ended with right shoulder inflammation and they might look to shake things up after a disappointing season.
Free Agents
62.2 IP 32.5 K% 10.8 BB% 4.02 ERA 3.89 FIP
Johnson made his MLB debut with the Cubs and ended up spending a year pitching in Japan before signing a three-year deal with the Padres, providing two solid years of middle relief and missing most of the third with forearm tendinitis. He signed a one-year deal with the Rockies and struggled in Colorado, leading to a mid-season trade to the Braves. Atlanta increased his curveball usage from 53% to 71%, leading to a spectacular line: 23.2 IP 36.0 K% 5.6 BB% 0.76 ERA 2.83 FIP.
50.2 IP 30.2 K% 10.8 BB% 3.38 ERA 4.20 FIP
Middleton was the Yankees’ lone midseason trade acquisition, and while he didn’t save their season, he did pitch to a 1.88 ERA and 3.26 FIP for them. The Yankees made Middleton’s slider his primary pitch instead of his changeup, and he allowed significantly fewer home runs per fly ball with the Yankees than he did with the White Sox. Middleton went from giving up the fourth most home runs per fly ball in baseball to a less extreme level after the trade. It’s possible this was a fluke, but he could be worth taking a flier on.
66.0 IP 29.9 K% 12.2 BB% 3.27 ERA 3.91 FIP
López is a solid middle relief option who pitched well despite pitching for three teams this year. He put up excellent numbers in 2022 which were partially due to an unsustainably low home run rate and regressed this year into a pretty good reliever. López one of the harder throwers available and won’t be cheap, but due to his shorter track record he probably won’t break the bank, and could complement Julian Merryweather in the back of the bullpen nicely.
52.2 IP 27.6 K% 6.9 BB% 2.56 ERA 3.73 FIP
Like López, Moore was passed around and pitched for three teams this year. Moore was great out of the bullpen for the Rangers in 2022 and had another good season in 2023. The Cubs placed a claim on him at least one of the times he was placed on waivers, so we know they had interest at one point. Moore is a solid left-handed reliever whose contract will likely be modest.
39.1 IP 35.7 K% 10.7 BB% 4.12 ERA 2.72 FIP
Let’s get this out of the way first: Kelly has had right elbow inflammation this year, and he may be one of the more anxiety-inducing relievers in baseball. Despite that, the Dodgers brought him back as part of the Lance Lynn trade. Kelly’s slider got more movement with the Dodgers, and he threw it more and his curveball less, changes which resulted in a 47.5% strikeout rate in 10.1 innings. The Dodgers do have a $9.5M club option on Kelly, but I would guess they’ll decline it as he’ll be 36 next year. Kelly is not a fun watch, but he could add swing and miss to the Cubs bullpen at a low price.
48.1 IP 14.9 K% 5.3 BB% 4.66 ERA 3.26 FIP
Alexander is a cheaper version of the White Sox Aaron Bummer. All you need to know here is that he’s a left-hander who gets ground balls at a 60% rate.
69.1 IP 18.8 K% 8.6 BB% 3.38 ERA 3.44 FIP
The longtime Brewer was picked up by the Rockies off of waivers over the offseason and pitched well despite having to pitch at Coors field. He’s a reliable left-handed reliever with some funk and a bit of a rubber arm. His skillset seems likely to be undervalued on the free agent market despite the good ERA and FIP.
59.2 IP 23.5 K% 8.0 BB% 3.02 ERA 3.14 FIP
Brasier had a 7.29 ERA before being released by the Red Sox this year. After signing with the Dodgers, he pitched 38.2 innings with a 26.6 K%, a 7.0 BB%, a 0.70 ERA, and a 2.48 FIP. Brasier will be 36 next year, so should get a short-term deal despite his numbers and the way he’s anchored the Dodgers bullpen.
52.1 IP 38.3 K% 8.0 BB% 3.10 ERA 3.22 FIP
Stephenson probably had the best year of any reliever on this list, especially if you look at his stats only with the Rays, where he struck out 42.9% of the hitters he faced in 38.1 innings. His new cutter is a phenomenal whiff pitch. Stephenson’s next contract will surprise people who didn’t notice how well he pitched with the Rays, but I don’t think it will be massive given his short track record. This is the highest upside arm here.
56.2 IP 26.3 K% 15.6 BB% 3.34 ERA 3.75 FIP
Diekman is another Rays reclamation project. With his new team, he pitched 45.1 innings with a 2.18 ERA and 3.21 FIP. As a slider-heavy lefty, he could bring something to the Cubs bullpen which they lacked this year.
38.1 IP 29.2 K% 8.7 BB% 3.99 ERA 3.93 FIP
The bearded former Cardinal put up a solid year with the Giants. His numbers don’t jump off the page, but he does have the flexibility to pitch more than an inning at a time.
56.2 IP 23.4 K% 6.9 BB% 4.76 ERA 2.96 FIP
Dylan Floro was briefly a Cub in 2017 and had some good to great years with the Dodgers and Marlins. He had a bad ERA with the Marlins this year, who traded him to the Twins, where his ERA only got worse. The odd thing is that his FIP was still great overall. Floro is not a strikeout machine, but he gets a fair amount of weak contact. I’m not sure why no one claimed Floro after the Twins DFAd him in late September, but it indicates that there won’t necessarily be a bidding war for him this offseason.